Os professores sobre a crise

por:  Redação  em: 5 de novembro de 2015

A Gazeta Vargas reuniu a opinião de professores de diferentes cursos da nossa Fundação sobre a crise. Os professores analisam a situação sob a perspectiva de sua área de atuação, contribuindo para o debate útil e necessário sobre a recuperação econômica do país.

Direito

Mario Gomes Schapiro

É professor da graduação e coordenador do mestrado acadêmico.

GzV: Em uma perspectiva jurídica, qual é a principal medida a ser tomada para que o país saia da crise?

Mário Schapiro: Primeiramente, vou tomar como pressuposto que não se configurem motivos jurídicos para um impeachment. Na minha perspectiva jurídica, é indispensável que duas medidas aconteçam em paralelo para a saída da crise econômica. De um lado, as investigações dos escândalos de corrupção devem continuar, com o processo legal, e receberem as devidas consequências. De outro, é importante apontar que essas investigações afetam a vida das empresas envolvidas. Tais empresas têm que separar seu envolvimento no processo criminal dos negócios. Deve haver uma reforma no ambiente dos negócios de modo que as companhias envolvidas nos escândalos de corrupção, como a Operação Lava-jato, sejam capazes de manter seus ativos e afastar as pessoas responsáveis pelos atos criminais da estrutura de governança.

Acredito que deve haver uma reestruturação nas regras de governança corporativa, de compliance, corrupção e antitruste, para que as empresas brasileiras estejam menos sujeitas a esse tipo de problema. Além disso, o país está vivendo uma crise de confiança política, portanto, é necessário que a confiança no governo seja reestabelecida; porém, essa é uma questão política, e não necessariamente jurídica.

 

Economia

Rogério Mori

É professor da graduação em economia e pós-graduação, além de coordenar o mestrado profissional em Economia e Direito da EESP/FGV.

GzV: Em uma perspectiva econômica, qual é a principal medida a ser tomada para que o país saia da crise?

Rogério Mori: Na minha visão, o termo “crise” está empregado erroneamente para o momento atual. As crises típicas de economias emergentes são bancárias, de balanço de pagamentos ou de dívida pública (interna ou externa). O termo “crise” foi difundido, em grande parte, pelo próprio governo desde o início do ano para tornar mais palatável junto ao grande público as amargas medidas de política econômica adotadas. Sob essa perspectiva, seria muito mais difícil para a sociedade digerir esse processo de ajuste caso o próprio governo identificasse desde o início que ele era decorrente da necessidade de corrigir os erros cometidos em termos de política econômica nos últimos anos.

De fato, a economia brasileira enfrenta, nesse momento, os efeitos de um ajuste recessivo, cuja origem remonta à necessidade da correção de rumo face aos equívocos de política econômica cometidos ao longo do primeiro mandato da presidente Dilma. Nesse sentido, os exageros do lado dos gastos públicos, associados às isenções fiscais concedidas ao longo dos últimos anos, deterioraram o resultado das contas públicas, levando à necessidade de um ajuste fiscal neste momento. A realização desse ajuste, seja via elevação de impostos e/ou através de cortes de gastos públicos, claramente tem um caráter recessivo, uma vez que desestimula a demanda agregada. Da mesma forma, a recorrente elevação da inflação nos últimos anos levou à necessidade de um aperto monetário (ainda que tardio), traduzido na elevação da taxa de juros por parte do Banco Central. Esse processo também tem caráter recessivo, uma vez que o aperto monetário implica em uma alta nas taxas de juros na ponta do empréstimo, levando a uma retração do consumo e dos investimentos no país, deprimindo, dessa forma, ainda mais a demanda agregada. A somatória dessas ações de política econômica está, em grande parte, na raiz da recessão que o Brasil atravessa atualmente.

Infelizmente, o ajuste fiscal brasileiro ficou aquém do esperado. De um lado, ocorreram frustrações do lado da arrecadação federal, por conta de uma desaceleração do ritmo da atividade econômica acima do previsto. Por outro lado, o governo não demonstrou maiores esforços do lado de cortar gastos públicos, o que levou a um aprofundamento do déficit público. A baixa disposição por parte do governo em promover um ajuste fiscal de fato pode ser traduzida no envio ao Congresso Nacional de uma proposta orçamentária com déficit (algo inédito no País). Como resultado desse processo, a agência de classificação de risco Standard & Poor’s promoveu o rebaixamento da classificação do Brasil e voltamos grau especulativo, passando a conviver novamente no mercado de junk bonds. Claramente, esse fenômeno só agrava o quadro atual.

Reverter esse cenário não será simples e rápido. O início desse processo deve ser pela realização de um ajuste fiscal efetivo, com corte de gastos públicos expressivo, uma vez que há pouca disposição do lado da sociedade em arcar com maiores impostos. Isso implicaria, também, no encerramento do conjunto de subsídios e de outras parafernálias fiscais criadas pelo governo ao longo dos últimos quatro anos, que levaram à acentuada deterioração das contas públicas.

Ao mesmo tempo, há a necessidade de retomada dos investimentos no País. Esse não é um processo fácil, uma vez que parte disso passa pela perspectiva do empresariado de um ambiente econômico mais favorável adiante, o que é pouco factível dada a baixa credibilidade do governo atual. Ao mesmo tempo, o País deve reconstruir as bases de confiança para os investimentos privados em infraestrutura, relançando o modelo centrado nas concessões, regulado por agências reguladoras fortalecidas. Do lado do consumo das famílias, não há muito a ser feito no curto prazo para uma retomada efetiva: os incentivos do governo via crédito levaram ao aumento do grau de endividamento das famílias. Nesse sentido, a estagnação da renda e os choques adversos de preços enfrentados (alta das tarifas de energia elétrica, de custos de transporte, etc), conjugados ao maior endividamento relativo, tornam pouco factível o aumento do consumo das famílias no curto prazo. É mais provável que essa retomada ocorra em um prazo mais longo, o que significa que é pouco provável que essa componente lidere a retomada da economia brasileira em um horizonte de prazo curto.

Sob essa perspectiva, resta o aumento das exportações líquidas como único vetor possível de estímulo à economia brasileira. Esse quadro se torna um pouco mais favorável ante a recente depreciação do real frente ao dólar. De qualquer forma, a análise histórica mostra que, mesmo com o estímulo cambial, as exportações demoram a reagir. Em outras palavras, também não é razoável esperar uma reação mais forte desse lado no curto prazo.

A somatória desses elementos revela que a economia brasileira atravessa um momento difícil e delicado. A reconstrução dos bons fundamentos macroeconômicos levará tempo e não será desprovida de percalços. Nesse meio tempo, não há muito o que fazer além de prosseguir com os ajustes na direção correta. Infelizmente, a economia brasileira enfrentará momentos difíceis até que suas bases sejam reconstruídas e ela tenha condições de ser relançada. Em outras palavras, o ambiente recessivo deverá persistir por algum tempo.

Esse cenário não é desprovido de riscos. O potencial de uma crise nas contas externas brasileiras existe ante a possibilidade de uma inversão dos fluxos de capitais estrangeiros e o risco de uma fuga  de capitais internacionais presentes na economia brasileira. A ocorrência desse fenômeno no atual quadro de déficit em transações correntes seria desastrosa. Sob essa perspectiva, o downgrade pela agência de classificação de risco amplifica esses riscos. A alta da taxa de juros norte-americana, também no horizonte, contribui para agravar esse quadro.

Administração de Empresas

Arício Xavier de Oliveira

É professor da graduação em Administração.

GzV: Em uma perspectiva administrativa, qual é a principal medida a ser tomada para que o país saia da crise?

Arício Xavier: Uma visão administrativa, nas atuais circunstâncias, no sentido de contribuir para a saída da crise, vejo-a com muita restrição, porque a saída da crise não começará por aí. Arrumar a máquina de governar, dar eficiência e ajudar a definir o seu tamanho, chegaremos a esta fase um dia.

No estágio de crise ao qual chegamos, tudo começa pelo governo conseguir e mostrar que comanda as ações políticas, que tem base política para tanto e que é uno nos seus propósitos. Hoje ele está a reboque. Parece difícil, mas sem isso não consegue formar consenso em torno de medidas no campo econômico, muito menos no administrativo (20, 30 ou 40 ministérios?). Equacionada a questão política, tudo aponta, queira-se ou não, para a questão das finanças públicas. Embora seja hoje um problema estrutural, a premência da crise pede socorro rápido e este só pode chegar mediante aumento de impostos, porque os cortes orçamentários e amplas reformas administrativas que evitariam este aumento exigiriam uma unidade política acima daquela que o Governo pode conseguir hoje.

Superado isto, começar a pensar: como construir uma administração pública eficiente?

Em resumo:

1) Reorganizar a máquina de governar vem depois. O governo precisa se salvar primeiro. Assim, a saída da crise começa pela política: o governo precisa demonstrar que comanda, que não vai ser apeado do poder, que tem um rumo;

2) O Governo, de imediato, não tem escolha: aumentar impostos. A dúvida é: quais impostos?

3) Fica uma questão em aberto: e se o Governo não conseguir se salvar? Imprevisível: mil roteiros.

E você, com qual professor concorda mais? Deixe sua opinião; participe do debate!

Imagem por Marisa Bueno

Imagem por Marisa Bueno

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